Now that the dust surrounding the 2019 presidential election has settled with the Supreme Court judgment that sealed Atiku’s fate and with repeated assurances by President Muhammadu Buhari that he won’t be seeking a third term in office, attention of political gladiators has now turned to 2023.
Even though Nigerians are worried that when President Buhari is yet to spend one year of his four-year mandate in office, conversation around who will replace him and where the person will come from has taken over the polity. But Nigerian politicians by their very nature do not care about the health, safety, decency and sanity of the polity, or even the country’s corporate existence. Rather, they spend 24 hours a day to strategize about how they can grab power today, how they can retain it tomorrow and how they can keep it in their circles forever.
A political colossus no one can ignore
Love him or loathe him, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is a man who has thoroughly paid his duties in the country’s politics. It is difficult if not impossible to pen the history of Nigerian democracy or even nationhood without a copious mention of his remarkable story. Eighty percent of the politicians who have since 1999 benefitted from this democracy in terms of elective offices, appointments, contracts and other forms of government patronage are actually people who know absolutely nothing about how the democracy came about as they never participated in the struggle; many of them were even enablers of military dictatorship.
Tinubu happens to belong to the 20 percent who actually put in their time, energy, resources and staked their lives and that of their family members to stand up to bullies in Khaki, in demanding for a return to civil rule. He was with the Martyr and Icon of democracy, MKO Abiola, through and through while he also served as Senator in the Third Republic. When late maximum dictator, General Sani Abacha bared his fangs, Tinubu was the one who coordinated or was involved in most of the efforts put in place to undo him – the nocturnal, clandestine meetings, at home and abroad, Kudirat Radio and several other initiatives. That was why he had the support of the Afenifere leaders to get the Alliance for Democracy (AD) ticket for the Lagos gubernatorial election in 1999, ahead of Late Funsho Williams.
As Lagos state governor, he laid the foundation for the very impactful administration of his successor, Babatunde Raji Fashola. His far-reaching blueprint which has made the state the most viable and richest in this part of Africa, confirms his long-term vision.
Tibubu is not among the most educated leaders in the country today. He cannot be called a philosopher-statesman in the mould of Plato. He doesn’t possess the intellectual depth of Awolowo, not even the oratorical prowess of SL Akintola. But he has to be the undisputed and most accomplished talent hunter in the history of Nigeria’s governance and politics. In fact, political observers marvel at the ease with which he surrounds himself with so much amazing talents. As governor, he recruited the best brains across all sectors as commissioners and special advisers from across the southwest and beyond.
Twenty one years down the line, some of them are now governors, ministers, lawmakers etc. In fact, one of them is currently the Vice president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
The Buhari cabal
For now, it looks like members of the President’s powerful cabal are at peace with Tinubu as they give him a lot of credit for his (Buhari’s) emergence in 2015 and 2019. They tried to shove him aside after 2015 but when they discovered that he was indispensable ahead of 2019, they quickly ran back to him and he delivered again.
The relationship is still rosy at the time of typing this peace. Rumours even emanated from the Villa that Osinbajo’s travails in the hands of the cabal was either Tinubu’s idea or that it was done to weaken the vice president’s profile and ease the way for Tinubu in 2023. Meanwhile, it looks likely that Osinbajo will be the candidate of the Nigerian Christian community in 2023 as the godson may challenge his godfather in an interesting dogfight. As for the cabal and Tinubu, we don’t know when the love boat will capsize, if it ever will. If it doesn’t, it won’t be difficult to get the APC ticket and it will be easy for the President himself to sell him to his traditional support base in northwest and northeast.
APC structure
With Tinubu already having a considerable support among the key organs of the party, he expanded his tentacles by massively supporting the APC candidates in Kogi and Bayelsa states who are now governors-elect. He will do so also in the forthcoming elections in Ondo and Edo states. They are investments he will hope to reap in the 2022 presidential primaries. With the emergence of Hope Uzodinma, Imo too may be in the bag for him depending on whether the southeast politicians will want to try their presidential ambition in APC or not.
Deep pockets/master strategy
Tinubu is a godfather who doesn’t need godfathers to rise to the position he wants because he can summon the humongous cash (in Bullion vans) that it takes to run election in the country. He also possess the wisdom and patience of a wily old fox which will come handy in the upcoming battle.
There are also a lot of factors that will be waiting to frustrate his ambition irrespective of the wit, tact and everything he puts into it.
Zoning
The easiest way for Tinubu to fly the party’s flag is if the party zones the presidency to the southwest. It is believed the only reason he rallied the southwest to stick with Buhari in 2019 was due to the understanding that it would be the turn of southwest to produce the president in 2023. Based on the conversation going on within the ruling party and in the polity, with the Igbo leaders threatening fire and brimstone that Nigeria may not survive if they are not supported for the top job and northern leaders also saying zoning is neither constitutional nor compulsory, it is looking like Tinubu and his people may have entered the proverbial ‘one chance.’
Enemies within
Even if it is zoned to the southwest, Tinubu may face stiff competition from the likes of Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti, Minister of Works, Babatunde Fashola, and Vice President Osinbajo, who ironically owe their rise in politics and governance to the APC national leader. Each of them may believe he is younger and can do better as President. For Osinbajo and Fayemi, they are Southern Christians who may believe they will be easy to market as successors to a Northern Muslim.
Corrupt past
If Tinubu ever becomes the party’s candidate, his opponent in the PDP and other parties will not hesitate to taunt him with his alleged corrupt past. On the way to making himself who he is, he is alleged to have since 1999 progressively ripped Lagos and other southwest states of its resources by getting significant cuts from every contract through various fronts. During the last elections in Lagos, two bullion vans were seen entering his house at Bourdilon in Ikoyi and he admitted that the content was his money. If Tinubu is APC’s candidate, his opponents will ensure corruption is a top campaign issue.
Mysterious/controversial personal details and background
Almost very personal detail of Tinubu has over the years been shrouded in mystery while his critics say many of the things he claims are not genuine. His real state of origin, parental/family background, educational qualification, age and many others have been said not to be exactly what he is claiming. The Late fiery Lagos lawyer, Chief Gani Fawenhinmi (SAM, SAN) provided robust evidence to prove that Tinubus’ Toronto certificate was forged and fought unsuccessfully to get him impeached as governor. His former ally turned foe, Yinka Odumakin, has written several pieces to tell the world that Tinubu is not the man he claims to be. All these details will haunt him in 2023
Another Muslim: A Southern Muslim
When there was still a country called Nigeria (apologies to Late Chinua Achebe, Africa’s greatest storyteller), we once had Northern Muslim presidents and Heads of State consecutively from 1979 to 1993 – Alhaji Shehu Shagari, General Muhammadu Buhari and General Ibrahim Babangida. In the case of Buhari, another Northern Muslim, General Tunde Idiagbon (a Yoruba from Kwara) was his deputy.
The country still went ahead to vote for a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of Chief MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe in the June 12, 1993 poll. Within this period, neither the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) nor any other Christian group agitate for religious balancing, preach against the Muslim leaders in churches or threaten fire and brimstone or accuse anyone of trying to Islamize Nigeria.
Meanwhile, it was in this same country that Tinubu could not be Buhari’s running mate in 2015 because of the need to avoid a Muslim-Muslim ticket. To underscore how bad things have gone, in Tinubu’s Lagos which is supposed to be the most cosmopolitan and civilized part of Nigeria, we all know that Muslims have dominated the governorship seat – from Alhaji Lateef Jakande to Tinubu himself and then to Babatunde Fashola (only once was a Christian ever voted in Lagos to serve as Governor and that was Michael Otedola in the ill-fated third republic) without anyone ever complaining. But ahead of the 2015 polls, pastors and other Christian leaders started agitating for a Christian governor, asking why should the state keep recycling Muslim governors and wondering if it was a plot to Islamize the state. The agitation and intense lobbying were both overt and covert and many political watchers even predicted that if the APC had fielded another Muslim, there would have been a coordinated campaign of propaganda and mobilization of Christians to ensure the party loses the election.
Tinubu quickly read the memo and acted on it by ensuring the party fielded Akinwunmi Ambode, a Christian from Epe. Even in 2019 when Ambode was booted out, he was replaced with another Christian, Babajide Sanwo-Olu apparently to ensure that the Christians complete two terms of 8 years. Now, it remains to be seen how that same Tinubu intends to convince the increasingly vocal and aggressive Christian community in the country that after Buhari’s 8 years, he, another Muslim, wants 8 years of his own in the saddle.
The country is so deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines now that it is so difficult for one religion to be seen trying to dominate the other. Since the Shariah agitation and protests between 90s and 2000s, ethno-religious violence in parts of Kano, Kaduna Jos etc, Nigeria has progressively drifted apart, along ethnic and religious lines, in such a way people are now so conscious of their religion that it guides their political choices. Of course, politicians reap enormous capital from the division. The division got worse under Jonathan and it has reached its crescendo under Buhari.
As a Southern Muslim, Tinubu may also find it a bit difficult in deciding where his running mate will come from, if he has the APC ticket. Since he is a Southern Muslim, he has to do regional and religious balancing, he has to pick a northern Christian as his running mate (We have heard rumours linking him with the SGF, Boss Mustapha). If he does that, he will be shutting out the Muslim Hausa/Fulani from northwest and northeast who have since 1960 produced either number 1 or number 2 citizen of Nigeria. Knowing full well that he is not so popular in south-south and southeast, he won’t want to lose out in the north as well.
And if he picks anyone from the so-called Muslim core north, he will be shutting out Christians completely and that means his candidature will face a serious battle with CAN and other affiliate groups. In fact, a Muslim-Muslim ticket led by Tinubu or anybody at all will be tagged the final push by APC and President Buhari to Islamize the country. As a Southern Muslim, Tinubu’s candidacy may have to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea.
The Atiku factor
While many thought it is over for him after the Supreme Court judgement, the possibility of Tinubu becoming the APC candidate in 2023 has made some persons who are close to the former vice president Atiku Abubakar to whisper to him that he stands a chance. As a Northern Muslim with massive support in south-south and southeast, his followers believe he will stand a better chance against Tinubu in 2023, except of course the ruling party resorts to the sort of scandalous election they just organized in Kogi and Bayelsa states.
Atiku, who has reportedly begun preparing for the 2023 as well, will however equally face massive opposition from the young governors in his party.
Indeed, 24 hours is a long time in politics. Tinubu obviously has his work cut out for him ahead of 2023.