…By Abdulrahman Abdulraheem
The main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has gone through a lot of trials and tribulations since it lost power in 2015. To some political watchers, it remains a miracle how the party was able to navigate through the stormy waters of 2015-2017 which shook it to its foundation.
After all the intra-party squabbles, factionalization and litigation that almost took its life, the party has done some cleansing, self-introspection and internal reforms which have brought it back to reckoning. In fact, the party is now dragging space with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) regarding who reserves the right to govern Nigeria from 2019-2023.
In a matter of hours, the party will therefore go to its national convention to decide the gladiator that will attempt to wrestle power from a powerful incumbent known as President Muhammadu Buhari in the February 2019 poll. A lot of undercurrents and factors have come into place in deciding the man who will wear the crown. Some of the candidates are perennial contestants; some are defectors from the APC while some had stayed loyal to the party even in the darkest days.
The party also faces another potential threat of disintegration if it fails to properly manage the massive ego and ambition of some of the bigwigs who are vying for the ticket. Since there is only one presidential ticket which can only go to one person, the party leadership faces an arduous task of making sure the losers stay around to work for the winner of the ticket who is going to challenge President Buhari in February.
We hereby take a close look at the aspirants, their chances of clinching the ticket and how far they can go in displacing President Buhari, if they get the ticket, as well as what each of them has to offer Nigerians if at all he becomes president.
Atiku Abubakar
Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, is seen by some political watchers as the best of the lot in terms of reach, resources, cross-national acceptability, experience, capacity and clout.
Atiku, who joined race earlier than most of his challengers is also the most serious of the aspirants; Even before getting the party’s ticket, he has criss-crossed the entire length and breadth of the country to convince delegates and stakeholders that he is the right man for the job. He has gigantic, well-furnished campaign office in the heart of Abuja and the organizational structure there is symbolic of that of a man who is truly ready to lead the nation.
Also going for Atiku is the fact that he is seen as that man who can fight a good fight with President Buhari, unlike many of the aspirants who may not have the nationwide support base that he possesses. He has made restructuring and diversification of the economy the main themes of the campaign and there is no better way to capture southern and middlebelt votes more than that.
Again, Atiku is a northern Muslim like President Buhari, so he is capable depleting the President’s votes even though the latter will still defeat anyone at all in his core base of northwest and northeast. Atiku is however from Adamawa in the northeast region which has never produced a Nigerian leader since Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa served as Prime Minister between 1960 and 1966; that sentiment may work to an extent for him if he clinches the ticket.
As far as some analysts are concerned, if the PDP really want to wrestle power from the APC, it has to field Atiku to stand a chance against a President Buhari who also will not let go of power without a fight.
Atiku is also perceived to have some intellectual depth and capacity to identify capable hands, needed to steer the ship of nation, if he becomes president. As vice president and head of the economic team, he was credited with assembling the bright minds with whom he ran the economy and made a lot of gains under President Olusegun Obasanjo. His supporters therefore call Atiku a talent hunter who can assemble the best brains he can work with, if elected president.
Atiku’s supporters also believe based on his background as a billionaire business mogul, employer of labour and philanthropist, he has the capacity to excel in office as president and solve the problems of unemployment, poverty and hunger which have bedeviled the nation for years.
To boost his chances among the youths and southerners who may agitate for power change in 2023, he has also promised to do only one term, if elected president.
His critics however believe that at 72, Atiku may be too old for the kind of person required to replace President Buhari in 2019. He is perceived to be corrupt, even though no one individual or group has been able to establish a credible case against him. He has changed parties and gone back on his words too many times that some powerful forces in and outside the party, and indeed some Nigerians do not think he can be trusted. Some forces within the party believe a far younger person with less moral baggage should be considered for the ticket and not Atiku. The fact that his former boss, President Obasanjo is not supporting him may not augur well for his chances.
It is believed that the Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state, who is seen as the king maker in the party, is not favourably disposed to an Atiku Presidential candidacy and this may work against his (Atiku) interest. A lot of stories are already flying round about some persons being convinced to step down to pave way for a young candidate. Wike is also believed not to be working alone; as some former leaders and elder statesmen are behind his choice. Atiku is however is pushing on with the belief that twenty four hours is a long time in politics and things can dramatically change in his favour, at the last minute.
A veteran in the game which involves mostly horse-trading, compromise and last-minute changes, Atiku is still believed to be the aspirant to beat when the party’s primary election commences in few hours time.
Bukola Saraki
While Atiku remains the aspirant to beat in this primary election, one man he must watch his back and look out for is a certain Bukola Saraki. The Senate President is believed to be a born winner. It is popularly said in political circles that Saraki does not go into a race with the plan to lose; in fact he has never lost an election at any level in his entire political career.
A two term governor of Kwara State and a second-term senator, Saraki is already an established, smooth and savvy political operator with a chain of admirers and supporters. He is widely seen as a cold calculator and a Machiavellian, serial manipulator who always has his way, no matter what it takes.
The way he maneuvered his way to become Senate President against the APC’s wish left Nigerians in shock in 2015. The way he has been able to retain the office and endured all the stones thrown at him to make him lose the position is also a lesson to students of politics. Rather than going down, he has been growing in popularity especially among those Nigerians who do not like President Buhari. The sympathy he has garnered from a section of the country may have prompted Saraki to toy with the idea of replacing President Buhari, a man who is perceived to be his tormentor-in-chief.
Saraki is in his 50s and his age may count for him ahead of Atiku. Immediately he defected to the PDP, he was quickly made the national leader of the party. He was even the chairman of the PDP gubernatorial council in Osun state. And the way he almost delivered victory to Senator Ademola Adeleke in the first ballot on September 22 may have cemented his stake in the party and must have boosted his presidential chances.
He had met with some powerful elements in the country before declaring his presidential ambition. Former Heads of State, Olusegun Obasanjo, and Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida and elder statesman Chief Edwin Clark were some of the people for consultations. The three men held his late father, Senator Olusola Saraki, in high esteem and may not see a Saraki Presidency as a bad idea.
Being a former chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) and present Senate President, he is beholden to the major power blocs within the PDP to the extent that he can be handed the party’s ticket. He is also affluent. So, money won’t be a hindrance to the prosecution of his aspiration.
Saraki, being of a sound mind, young, well educated and articulate is seen as man who can govern better if he succeeds President Buhari in 2019.
Saraki however has little acceptability in the Northwest and Northeast. The same goes for the Southwest not minding the fact that he bears Yoruba names. Identity politics is a huge underlying current in the political circuit of the country.
Aside that, he also has corruption and other criminal allegations, though unproven, on his neck which the APC can use to de-market him if he carries the PDP ticket.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
An experienced politician who knows what he wants and goes for it, his only unaccomplished ambition yet is to become the president. Kwankwaso is no doubt a force to reckon with especially in the northwest and northeast where his Kwankwasiya Movement has a cult-like following.
He has been minister, deputy speaker in the House of Representatives, governor and now a senator, representing Kano Central. He has been advocating that the PDP gives its ticket to someone from any of the ‘K’ northwest states (Kano, Katsina and Kaduna), saying that is the only way Buhari’s strong hold can be breached and defeated, thereby making a strong case for himself.
Truly, as some observers agree with him, Kwankwaso being another northern Muslim will also give Buhari a bloody fight, if he has the PDP’s ticket.
But not all the factors favour him. At the height of the agitation for power shift to the North within the PDP in 2014, Kwankwaso, then Governor of Kano State, was one of the arrowheads of those who left the PDP to team up with other politicians from across the country to establish the APC where he came second, trailing Buhari from behind in the presidential primaries that was held in Lagos. He shocked everyone by beating Atiku to the second position.
Some commentators and supporters of former President Jonathan are of the view that if Kwankwaso and his group had not ditched the former President for the APC then, it would have been nearly impossible for Buhari to defeat him in 2015. To that extent, some of these supporters who are now in firm control of the party structure especially in the South-south region, Jonathan’s political comfort zone, are unhappy with him and may eventually not vote for him during the primary election of the party in October. In fact, a former minister under Jonathan from Akwa Ibom state who controls about 25 delegates from the state pointedly told a canvasser recently that his group was open to negotiating with any of the aspirants except KwanKwaso.
Sensing the possibility of apathy towards him in the South-south region, Kwankwaso made a recent courtesy visit to Jonathan to consult him on his ambition. It’s however unclear whether die-hard fans of the former President have forgiven him or not.
Aside the south-south where he is grossly unpopular, Kwankwaso is not known to be able to pull crowd in the middle belt, southeast and southwest. It is therefore difficult to see how he can defeat President Buhari, if he wins the PDP ticket. He is seen in the southern parts, rightly or wrongly, as a northern irredentist.
Another issue in the Kwankwaso ambition is the fact that so far his campaign has not been defined by any topical issue. If he becomes president, it is difficult how he wants to run the country when the electorate cannot trace any quality topic to his campaign discussions so far.
Aminu Tambuwal
Aminu Tambuwal was Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 7th National Assembly and currently doing his first term as Governor of Sokoto State.
He is relatively young, urbane and has no corruption allegation against him by any of the anti-graft agencies, which implies that he has less moral baggage before the voting public.
Besides, Tambuwwal is considered a broad-minded politician, less divisive, and hugely unencumbered by religious zealotry or ethnic chauvinism which some politicians are known to clandestinely harbor. These attributes make him cosmopolitan and therefore a bit acceptable to a wide spectrum of Nigerians.
Most importantly, he is seen as the preferred candidate of the strongest voting bloc in the party led by Wike.
It however remains a mystery how he would summon the nationwide support base to stand against the incumbent.
On the issue of performance, many analysts believe he has what it takes to perform better than the incumbent if elected president in February 2019.
David Mark
Former Senate President, David Mark, is a late entrant into the race to succeed President Buhari but while moving from one part of the country to the other, he has never hidden his determination to see through his dream.
The basic agenda he has for the country is to unite all Nigerians across the familiar fault lines. According to him, the fundamental failure of the Buhari administration is that it has further dividing Nigerians from across its fault lines.
He has experience across the executive and legislative positions, having had a great career in the military before venturing into politics. He was a former military administrator of Niger state and also served as the as Minister of Communications under General Ibrahim Babangida.
He was the first Senate President since 1999 to bring stability to the position and the Upper Chamber and this buttresses his claim that if he becomes president, he can unite and stabilize the country.
Even though he looks ageless and strong like the old wine that gets better with age, Mark is also over 70 and he may not fall within the age range that many young Nigerians are clamouring for.
The only baggage he is carrying has to do with June 12 as he was said to be among the influential officers who caused the IBB junta to annul the historic election won by late business mogul, MKO Abiola.
Mark is another smart politician who knows how to find his way within the PDP. He also has the credit of remaining in the party and working had to get it out of problem rather than running away, the way some of the gladiators did. If he wins the PDP ticket however, he may not have the nationwide appeal and support base needed to wrestle power from the incumbent.
Ibrahim Dankwambo
Gombe state governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, is the only real technocrat in the race. He is competent, level-headed with a pan-Nigerian mentality, unencumbered by religion or ethnicity and most importantly, has little or no moral/corruption baggage. He has the capacity to perform better than President Buhari and indeed more than any of the PDP aspirants, if he becomes president.
In addition, Dankwambo, a former Accountant-General of the Federation, has not done badly as Gombe State Governor in the last 7 years taking cognizance of the resources available to him and what he has been able to achieve in terms of developmental projects.
Politically, tt is to his credit that Gombe State did not fall for the Buhari and APC bandwagon in 2015 and he is today one of only two PDP governors in the northeast.
One factor is going for Dankwambo in this race, he is one of the aspirants who are seen as principled, loyal and consistent by remaining with the PDP through thick and thin, unlike some of the aspirants, who rather sought to destroy the PDP and teamed up with President Buhari to take APC to where it is today; many of those ‘destroyers’ are back in the party, asking to be given the ticket to run for president.
Dankwambo is however yet to have a pan-Nigerian appeal and does not seem to command the necessary gravitas and hurricane popularity in the North to confront Buhari who has defied all known logic and common sense to retain a fanatical following in the northeast and northwest. PDP is said to be looking for that candidate who can square up to Buhari in terms of grassroots popularity in these two zones.
If he wins the ticket on Sunday, it will be a herculean task for him to defeat President Buhari in February 2019.
Ahmed Makarfi
A former two-time Governor of Kaduna State, senator in the 7th Senate, and immediate past national caretaker chairman of the PDP, Ahmed Makarfi has all the experience needed to be president.
Besides being seen as a level-headed and tolerant politician, Makarfi is also well-educated, experienced in management and public administration. He is also reputed to have little or no moral baggage that the APC can capitalize on to de-market him.
Some party members still rate him high for the way he was able to hold the party together during the turbulence occasioned by his struggle with Ali Modu Sheriff over the leadership of the party.
Markafi comes from the Northwest as Buhari. His popularity in the region, it must be said, is not in the same league with the President. Even in Kaduna State where Markafi comes from, Buhari, a Katsina man, appears above Markafi on the popularity scale. This may affect Markafi when the power brokers in the PDP sit for their boardroom calculations and permutations.
Sule Lamido
A self-styled friend of the Talakawas , Sule Lamido, a two-term Governor of Jigawa State and one time Minister of Foreign Affairs in the administration of former President Obasanjo, believes he is the most qualified among the aspiring lot to fly the party’s flag in 2019. He believes he has made enough sacrifices for the PDP especially when it appeared almost a sacrilege to identify with the party in the North in the not-too-distant past.
He has experience in abundance and he is one of those senior citizens who believe they know the country’s history and the way forward more than anyone else.
Lamido, an ally of Obasanjo, has come a long way on the country’s political scene, thus, he is not a new kid on the bloc. His stewardship as governor of Jigawa State, according to standard indices of development is a mixed grill when juxtaposed against the lofty promises he made to the people of the state in 2007 when he succeeded Saminu Turaki as Governor of the state.
Like Dankwambo and Makarfi, he also has the credit of staying with PDP which was distressed few years ago and helping it to swim out of the murky waters instead of abandoning it like many of the aspirants did. In fact, in Lamido’s case, he was among the G7 governors who had a major disagreement with the then President Jonathan and had peace meetings with him for some time. When the discussions broke down, five of the governors joined the APC, Lamido alongside his then Niger state counterpart, Dr Muazu Babangida Aliyu, vowed never to leave the party under any circumstances, saying no landlord leaves his house to outsiders. This sentiment will always favour Lamido in the race as he is seen as true, faithful party man.
He however has a corruption baggage which the APC may use against him if he flies the PDP ticket. Yet to be convicted by the court for alleged financial misappropriation during his reign as Governor, Lamido, is however on trial, alongside two of his sons in a case instituted against them by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
Aside his robust relationship with Obasanjo, his former boss, who in any case is the godfather of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Lamido is not known to have any major supporting bloc within the PDP that can sway a large chunk of delegates’ votes in his favor. He will need a deep financial wallet, too, to be able to trade tackles with aspirants with heavy financial war chest in the party.
Attahiru Bafarawa
He is from Sokoto State, the seat of the caliphate, where he was governor for eight years on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) before dumping the party for the PDP.
Even though he is not seen as a major contender for this prize, he has one factor going for him; he is also one of the aspirants who have remained with the PDP throughout the challenging period of 2015-2017.
Bafarawa has however lost so much steam as a politician. Little is known about him beyond his Sokoto enclave any longer and it is very much doubtful if he has solid political structures outside the state.
More so, his alleged involvement in the sharing of the funds for arms spearheaded by Col. Sambo Dasuki during his time as the National Security Adviser in the administration of Goodluck Jonathan has cast a serious aspersion on his person. Although cleared by the court, it will remain difficult if not possible to wriggle himself out of the infamy.
Even back in his home state, Bafarawa does not control any major bloc of the PDP whose structure has been handed to Governor Aminu Tambuwwal who recently defected to the party from the APC to also his presidential ambition.
Also, there is hardly any Nigerian who thinks if Bafarawa replaces President Buhari in 2019, he will perform better than the incumbent. So getting the PDP ticket will be an uphill task for him.
Dr. Datti Baba-Ahmed
Dr. Datti Baba- Ahmed, 48, is the youngest presidential aspirant on the platform of the PDP. Urbane and cosmopolitan, the founder and pro-chancellor of Baze University, Abuja, is arguably the most educated among the aspirants. He holds two Masters Degrees and a PhD. In the course of his academic journey, he has been to London Business School, Harvard Kennedy School of Government and Harvard Business School respectively.
He became a member of the House of Representatives representing Zaria Federal Constituency in 2003 on the platform of the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP). In 2011, he was elected as a senator representing Kaduna Central in the senate on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) defeating Ahmed Markafi, former Governor, who was seeking reelection as a senator then.
Dr Baba-Ahmed believes that for Nigeria to develop, government must focus on three core areas, namely: security, economy and education. He believes he has what it takes to revitalize the Nigerian economy.
Lofty as his dreams and ideals are, his immediate challenge is getting the ticket of the PDP. Within the party, his name does not resonate much. At the national level, he is grossly unpopular.
He however has the pedigree to be a good president if at all he can surmount the hurdles leading to Aso Rock.
Tanimu Turaki
A Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and former Minister of Special Duties in the immediate past administration of Goodluck Jonathan, is the current Chairman of PDP former Ministers’ Forum of Nigeria.
The graduate of Law from the University of Jos is also the first lawyer from Kebbi State to be elevated to the rank of SAN in 2002. Although he has been touring the country, meeting party stakeholders and delegates along the line, Turaki’s name does not so much come into the reckoning of political bookmakers.
Jonah Jang
Former governor of Plateau state and serving senator, Jonah Jang, may be one of those aspirants who in political circles are called ‘also-rans.’ Aside being in his 70s and a late entrant into the race, Jang is not a name that commands any serious following within the PDP and in the country at large.
While he has experience in the military, executive and legislature that may count for him, he is seen as physically weak, on account of illness and age, and may be unable to stand the rigours of a presidential candidate, let alone run the office of the President.