Battleground Polls: Clinton Tops Trump Post-convention

Battleground Polls: Clinton Tops Trump Post-convention
August 04 18:40 2016

Hillary Clinton holds commanding leads over Donald Trump
in a trio of states that the GOP nominee has made central to
his White House bid, according to polls released Thursday
following both party’s national conventions last month.
In New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — states
that have trended Democratic in recent elections, but whose
economics and demographics seem to pose an opening for
the GOP nominee — Clinton has made strides in improving
her favorable ratings, while Trump remains challenged by
high unfavorable ratings and resistance from a significant
portion of Republicans.

New Hampshire
A new poll of New Hampshire shows Clinton with a
commanding 15-point lead over Donald Trump, finding
Granite State Democrats coalescing around their nominee
after their convention while state Republicans remain
resistant to Trump.

Clinton leads Trump 47% to 32% among likely New 
Hampshire voters, according to the poll from WBUR, with
third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included.
Matched up one-on-one, Clinton’s lead grows to 17 points,
51% to 34%.
Both candidates continue to suffer from challenging
unfavorable ratings, though Clinton has made strides
improving her marks following the conventions. The
Democratic nominee now breaks even, with 45% saying
they view Clinton favorably to 45% who say the opposite –
up from a -23 spread in a WBUR poll from May.

Trump is
viewed favorably by 29% of likely New Hampshire voters,
against 60% who have an unfavorable opinion — a slight
decline from May.
The poll found also that Clinton receives the support of 86%
of Democrats and 14% of Republicans, while Trump is
backed by just 63% of Republicans and 4% of Democrats.
The WBUR survey also asked likely New Hampshire voters
what they thought about each party’s national conventions.
Fifty-six percent said they thought Clinton emerged from the
convention “much stronger” or “a little stronger,” compared
to 39% who said the same about Trump and the RNC.

The poll also found Democrats with an edge in the state’s
U.S. Senate race. Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan leads
incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte 50% to 40%. New
Hampshire is among a few close races in swing states in a
year where control of the Senate could come down to just
one or two changing seats.
The WBUR New Hampshire poll was conducted from July 29
through August 1, and surveyed 609 likely New Hampshire
voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 points.

In Pennsylvania — a Democratic-leaning Rust Belt state that
Trump has vowed to put in play for the GOP this election –
another poll released Thursday showed Clinton leading
Trump by double digits.
Clinton leads Trump 49% to 38% among likely Pennsylvania
voters, according to the Franklin and Marshall College poll.
Her lead swells to 13 points, 47% to 34%, with Johnson and
Stein included.
Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania was buttressed by the
Democratic National Convention.

The poll found that 62% of
those who watched the DNC said they were more likely to
vote for Clinton. Forty percent of those who watched the
Republican convention said it made them more likely to vote
for Trump.
Both Clinton and Trump struggle with high unfavorable
ratings among likely Pennsylvania voters, but as in New
Hampshire, Clinton has an advantage over Trump on this

Forty-seven percent said they view the
Democratic nominee favorably to 49% who view her
unfavorably, while Trump’s spread — 33% favorable to 62%
unfavorable — is further underwater.
Likely Pennsylvania voters favor Clinton over Trump on the
question of who has better judgment and experience, and
who is more prepared to handle foreign policy and
terrorism. But Clinton and Trump run about even on the
question of who would better manage the economy.
Consistent with previous presidential elections in
Pennsylvania, the Republican nominee’s biggest leads are
in the southwest region of the state, while Clinton’s
advantage is in the northeast, most notably in Philadelphia.
The Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania was
conducted from July 29 through August 1. The poll
surveyed a random sample of 661 registered voters with a
margin of error of +/- 4.8 points, and 389 likely voters with a
margin of error of +/- 6.3 points.


Another battleground poll released Thursday — Michigan –
also found Clinton holding a significant lead over Trump.
Clinton is ahead of Trump by 9 points, 41% to 32%, among
likely Michigan voters, according to a Detroit news/WDIV-
TV poll.

Clinton’s lead is smaller, 6 points, without third-
party candidates included.
Pollster Richard Czuba told the Detroit News the survey
found a “shocking” Clinton lead in typically reliable
Republican areas in west and southwest Michigan, where
she carries leads of 5-6 points. And according to the poll,
30% of self-identifying Michigan Republicans are not
backing Trump.

Trump’s struggles in the state’s conservative strongholds
are attributable in part to Libertarian nominee Gary
Johnson. The poll found that in those west and southwest
regions of Michigan, critical for flipping Michigan red,
Johnson is drawing 10% and 16% support, respectively.
The poll also found a majority of Michigan voters — 61% –
say Trump is “ill-prepared to be commander in chief.”
The Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll was conducted from July 29
through August 1, surveying 600 likely Michigan voters. It
has a margin of error of +/- 4 points.